Sunday 10 April 2016

Am I ready to join the ultimate amateur runners' club? Probably not. But only one way to find out.

Right… remember me?

I’ve not sat down to write a blog post since… wow, September! I posted in February, but I was already sat down when I wrote that. On a bus. To Gatwick. To fly out to run a half marathon in Italy. Which…
…got cancelled due to adverse weather conditions. Not the organisers’ fault. Not that weather’s anyone’s fault, but the race permit was revoked by the local authorities. I’d flown in on the Friday and the Due Perle HM wasn’t officially called off until Saturday evening, much to the disappointment not just of yours truly but of many others who’d travelled for the weekend, albeit without requiring a passport. That said, at least I’d taken out an insurance option…
…no, not a financial one! On the Saturday I entered the Portofino Run 10k: virtually the same out and back course, but just the one  lap thereof. 40’26”, so 69” PB. Happy enough with that, and with hindsight better to PB over 10k in the dry than to struggle through a HM to bring back a mediocre time. Not that I was thinking along those lines at the time, having taken two days’ leave for the jaunt…

…at least I don’t need to take time off to get up to Manchester and back! And besides, it was nice to spend some time with my parents and my Nonna.

Huh? What’s that?

Ah yes. Manchester.

That’s right: it’s Greater Manchester Marathon weekend. My fourth. Results to date:
06/04/2014: epileptic seizure at mile 20: DNF.
19/04/2015: the week before The Fling when training for The WHW Race… 3:08’56” (10’28” PB)

3:08’56” still being my PB. Unsurprisingly, given the Manchester marathon’s as flat as they come. Indeed, hopefully elevation is still less than the 777ft (30ft/mi) showing on the race Strava page, given that last year my 410 reckoned it was 215ft: now I know they’ve changed the finish (which will feature a little incline), but surely it can’t be that drastic!

Now, last year’s event was a diversion from my A goal, which was, as I may have mentioned, the West Highland Way Race. In turn, my key training race for WHW was The Highland Fling, which I ran six days after Manchester. So, whilst I’d done some marathon training in the weeks building up to April 19, ultimately my focus was elsewhere, on something fundamentally different. Whereas, this time round…

…this is my 2016 A race.

As the summer of 2015 came to a close, I set my eyes on sub-3. Then autumn came, and I really struggled with pace. I ran three marathons in October, racing one of them (York), and caught some pesky bug while we were out in Italy for Nonna’s 100th. Even once the mucus had long found its way through sewers and into front garden soils, the pace that had taken me to my maiden sub-90 HM in September was nowhere to be seen. I felt obliged to review my goal and duly upped (lowered?) it to 3:05’. This remains an ambitious target, and would represent a 2’56” PB: but it doesn’t have the daunting yet irresistible lure of the defining sub-3 mark. Of membership of a club over what, like many others, I, someone who’ll lace up for anything from parkrun to ultra, consider to be the defining distance. Which is why, Ladies and Gentlemen…

. . .

Correct. I will be going for sub-3 in Manchester. It’s Thursday as I type: but I won’t be publishing this till I’m on my merry way, if not later. I’ve long been maintaining my goal is sub-3:05’ (kinda in between current PB and sub-3) and that’s all you needed to know. Till now.

OK, so some of you know the truth. Four of you, in fact: Graham (from parkrun), Paul, Mike and Chris. I told Graham as we warmed up for Saturday’s parkrun, mainly to see how it sounded when I said it out loud. I told Paul when we were frankly discussing our respective goals. I told Mike for some valued feedback. And I told Chris because…well, we might end up spending some time together later.

Here’s what I volunteered to Mike:

“Yes, I do plan to go out with the sub-3 pacing group. But not because I think such an attempt is likely to be successful. My reasoning is different - and threefold:

1. To give me an idea of the gap between where I'm at and where I need to be for a more realistic sub-3 attempt later in the year;

2. Because, having run The Bath at 6'41"/mi, I know I can run 13.1 at 6’52" and get halfway in 1:30'. So I could still set a PB running the second half in 1:38’55” at 7'33".
Now, we both know (least I do) the impact on lactic-heavy legs of a fast-fading goal. Nevertheless, hopefully the pursuit of a PB would help me carry on at 7'33". And…

3. ...if neither mind nor legs fail, and by the grace of God I do manage to stick with the sub-3 pacer... if Group Effect, Audience Effect, nutrition, weather, stubbornness and taperschmaper all combine to create a perfect storm within which I do go sub-3… and it would take all of those… as well as the benefit of running freely, without watch-watching, placing my faith in the pacer (none of my sub-19 5ks have come through checking time, and I do genuinely run faster when not scaring myself by looking at how fast I’m running)…

...well, then I’ll be able retire from running a happy man. If not necessarily on Sunday evening. More likely in three decades’ time or so. But I’d have… you know… joined The Club. The one which, for me, is the ultimate Runners' Club.

So:
Gold Goal: sub-3:00’00"
Silver Goal: sub-3:05'00"
Bronze Goal: sub-3:08'56"

Not sure this will necessarily surprise you. Truth is, if I do PB, whether I do so at 3:00’01" and 03:08’55" makes little difference to me, in the great, long-term, dream-pursuing scheme of things. I’d rather come away knowing how short of *that* landmark I came and plan for Chester and/or Nice accordingly.”


Quite frankly, there isn’t much to add to that. Although granted, later on in the e-mail conversation I did spell out that “I'd rather end crushed by the side of the road than wonder “what if?””. On the basis that I’ve ended crushed by the side of the Manchester route once already, it’s probably no bad thing that Mike didn’t respond.

But why am I only publishing this with the race underway?

Because I know what would happen if I did so. I’d be inundated with best wishes on social media, with dollops of “you can do it!” and the occasional sprinkling of “nutter!”. I’d be overwhelmed. Literally.

See, the minute I waved goodbye to sub-3 as a goal I felt a reinvigorating sense of relief. Not long after, my pace picked up again. Bizarrely, this appears to have been helped by my upping my weekly mileage back into the 70s from the 50s into which I’d descended to achieve that very goal. I ran 250 miles in January, my fastest parkrun coming on the 30th: 19’33”. In February (a month which began with a taper for the HM that never was and was, even in a leap year, shorter than any other), I ran 284 miles: 3.1 of those, on the 27th, in 18’47”, a 17” 5k PB. Since then, hovering around the 70mi/week mark, I’ve run five more parkruns and gone sub-19’ on three occasions, my PB now 18’32”, set at Burnham and Highbridge parkrun. As for the other two, one was on the eve of Bath Half and thus duly taken steadily, whereas the other was at Ashton Court with its 331ft of ascent, where 19’57” still represented a chunky course best for me. And was the second in a series of three consecutive first V40 placings at three different parkruns: proof, if ever it was required, that waving goodbye to your thirties can be the best thing that happens to you as a runner.
If you believe race predictors (such as the RunningForFitness one), my 18’32” 5k time suggests I am capable of a 2:57’28” marathon. Now, I can see how a race predictor can set a runner a realistic goal, but I don’t believe its short-term accuracy. And I certainly think the 23.1 miles separating parkruns from marathon represent too great a leap for faith to be warranted. Equally, on the basis of my 1:28’10” HM PB in Bath the same predictor thinks I’m capable of a 3:04’29” marathon. Which is probably not far from where the clock will stop for me on Sunday. But…

…heck, I’ve trained for months. It’ll be six months before I get to run another one. That’s six months (well, four, anyway) f turning down alcohol and cake, of planning my training around a very tight and unforgiving goal… wouldn’t it be good to get it over and done with, once and for all?

Because trust me: should I ever join The Sub-3 Club, that’ll do me nicely. I wouldn’t focus on running 26.2 in twohourssummat again. It could happen, but only whilst my focus was on different challenges. Not that I need to look far, anyway: I’ve got Conti Lightning Run on May 1 and its big brother Conti Thunder Run on July 23, with Classic Quarter’s 44 miles along the South West Coast Path on June 11 sandwiched in between the 12- and 24-hour runs in Derbyshire. I want to enjoy those three and do well, but actually my second key goal for 2016 is more modest, at least in size: I want to break 40’ over 10k. Which is harder than it sounds, if well within my reach right now given my 5k times. 38’34”? Now there’s a prediction I’ll believe. Well, give or take 1’25”, anyway. Indeed, ‘give’ only.

. . .

I’d wondered whether typing this and committing to screen words in which my belief had been growing would bring back the pressure I shed around the turn of the year. Truth is, it hasn’t. I’m still pondering over everything I eat, over the exact length of every taper run… I’ve lost track of how long I’ve spent starting at MyFitnessPal, let alone Strava… but I’d be doing that regardless of the run. What I am looking forward to is putting all my faith into a complete stranger and trying to follow him for a little under three hours. Not having to think about pace should free up a little energy; not looking at how fast I’m going will make the effort feel a little lighter. And, if I’m to tick this box, it’s going to take all the energy I can muster: mentally, as much as physically.

Heck, if I were relying on my physical ability alone I wouldn’t bother at all. If anything’s going to see me cross that finish line the right side of noon it will be my mental strength. My stubbornness remains my best asset. And hopefully some of the nuggets I picked up in Matt Fitzgerald’s latest offering “How Bad Do You Want It?”, which I devoured last week (zero calories!), will come in handy. Let’s just hope my brain behaves, unlike 2014, eh?

Right: I’m done. By the time you read this, I’ll have lined up at the start of the 2016 Greater Manchester Marathon well aware that far better runners than me have had to invest multiple attempts (with related training) to break sub-3 over 26.2. That my recent long runs suggest I am in PB shape but not sub-3 shape. So, when I return to the ether later, if I’ve not hit my gold goal I won’t be in any way disappointed. If its foolhardy pursuit has compromised even my silver and bronze goals, so be it. I can live with failure. It’s the failure to find out that I don’t want to experience. 

Indeed, I expect to fail. But I won't fail to expect. My. Very. Best. If that’s not good enough, on this occasion, so be it. I’ll still be proud of my achievement: my training alone gives me that right. And I’ll still show off that medal to my Boys. It just means I’ll have to work harder, and smarter, ahead of the Autumn marathons. And, quite frankly, I’d much rather not have to bother and be able to eat cake and drink beer.


. . .


If noon on Sunday, April 10 has long passed, you should be able to navigate your way to my result starting from here.

Oh, and please support my local parkrun, which is under threat from the local council, by signing this petition. At a time when obesity and diabetes are making the news for all the wrong reasons, it’s hard to view the council’s stance as anything but short-sighted.

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